AFFECTS Space Weather Reports

November 8, 2013

Active region 1890 now located almost disk centered at S14E15 released an X1.1 flare this morning with peak emission time at 04:26 UT. The warning was released by our AFFECTS partner NOAA-SWPC and also by ROB first at 04:40 UT (this service is available through the subscription services). Analysis of the associated CME shows that it is directed to the SW of the ecliptic plane and will not reach Earth. Please have a look on the picture in the right column and the video clip below.

November 6, 2013

Active region 1890 in the Sun's south eastern hemisphere at S10E30 has potential to trigger severe solar storms. An X-class flare of Intensity X3.3 was released yesterday night with peak intensity at 22:12 UT. A partial halo CME with bulk mass motion to the SE was observed. From November 7 on this region can be a source of earth directed solar storms of major (Kp g.e. 8-) intensity and further flares leading to HF blackouts are likely.

May 22, 2013

A fast CME was observed by SOHO and STEREO at about 2 p.m. UT. Its onset was associated with an X-ray flare of M-intensity starting at 12:30 UT at N13W75 and a solar proton event. The estimated arrival time of the CME flank is 15:30 UT on 24 May 2013. This corresponds to 17:30 UT local time in mid Europe. The expected speed at L1 is 800 km/s and its geomagnetic impact is estimated to be in the range Kp 6-8-. The CME magnetic field is modeled NSE so that the peak of the storm may occur near midnight of May 24 yielding chances to watch aurorae in northern Europe and southern Scandinavia. A very strong storm however is not very likely because of the western position of the CME source region.

May 21, 2013

A major CME was observed at about 05 UT today by the two STEREO satellites.Our analysis shows that the CME speed was low, at the order of about 400 km/s,and that it originated on the Sun's backside, so it is not directed earthward and nospace weather effects are expected to occur from this event.

May 15, 2013

Active region 1748 appeared at the Sun's East limb on May 13, 2013 when it caused on this, the following day and today three X-ray flares with peak intensities in the M to X-range. Three fast CMEs with speeds in the range 1400-2000 km/s were associated with these events. The first two ones are not expected to cause any impacts at Earth whilst a shock wave is expected to arrive between 06:30 and 12:30 local time (DST) tomorrow on May 16, 2013. The estimated speed at Earth is 1000 km/s. There are no indications that the CME main body will pass the Earth and there are no indicators for a major geomagnetic storm to be happening. The delayed and slow intensity increase in the >10 MeV proton flux is a typical signature for shock wave propagation East of central meridian. It is likely that the next days will be stormy too since besides AR 1748, AR 1745 closer to CM also has potential for causing major solar storms.

April 12, 2013

On April 11 around 07 UT SOHO and STEREO detected the onset of a CME near CM. The estimated speed of it is 603 km/s in the STEREO/COR2-B field of view. Using the BHV prediction method yields an arrival time of April 14, 03 UT with an in-situ speed of 500 km/s. Based on the B&S flux rope scheme the CME is predicted to be of ENW (SEN) type. A geomagnetic storm is forecasted for April 14, 03 - 15 UT, with a magnitude of about Kp 7+.

March 16, 2013

On 15 March 2013 around 07 UT a halo CME occurred on the Earth directed solar disk slightly NE to central meridian. It was associated with a M1.2 flare. Part of the CME is expected to be directed towards earth. From the BHV model we forecast its arrival time around 15 UT on March 17. The CME's speed at earth is estimated to 550-600 km/s. Magnetic field analysis yields a WSE (NWS) LH type CME with peak storm phase to occur near the center and trailing portion of the CME. The peak storm is expected to occur before midnight on March 17 until morning of March 18 with expected Kp values of about 7. Polar lights may be visible in southern Scandinavia. You are welcome to test our L1 solar wind, Kp, Aurorae alerts provided as RSS feeds (not directly available with the Safari Browser). The services are provided through the "Project" button at the AFFECTS main page.

February 24, 2013 - Forecast Update

New small coronal holes to the NE and SE of the visible disk will reach central meridian around February 26, leading likely to fast solar wind streams above 600 km/s on February 28, March 1-3.

February 22, 2013 - Forecast for AFFECTS GM and UW

Solar wind conditions: Analysis of SDO and STEREO observations of the Sun's EUV corona yields prediction of slow (300-400 km/s) solar wind conditions for the next 10 days. There is the chance of a faster solar wind stream with speed of 500-600 km/s to reach Earth the next 4 days. Fast solar wind with speeds of 600-800 km/s will reach Earth around March 4 after a larger coronal hole in the NE reaches central meridian on February 25. It is located above an active region to the S.

Solar storm (CME) predictions: From SDO/HMI observations it is inferred that no major storms are expected to occur due to Earth directed CMEs the next 10 days. Bipolar magnetic fields on the visible disk are currently weak with the exception of a large sunspot region 1678 to the NW, rotating away from Earth. The region made up of two NS bipoles has the potential to trigger fast CMEs the next 2 weeks but directed away from Earth. Slow CMEs with WSN flux rope configurations could be triggered by an AR in the SW and nearby filaments and could cause mild geomagnetic storms the next four days.

Solar energetic proton (SEP) events and flares: The probability of major flares and solar energetic particle events triggered by AR 1678 is decreasing. No major events are expected the next 10 days.

January 25, 2013 - General 10 day Forecast

Solar wind conditions: Analysis of SDO and STEREO observations of the Sun's EUV corona yields prediction of slow (300-400 km/s) solar wind conditions for the next two weeks until coronal holes N and S of the solar equator will lead to faster solar wind streams approaching Earth.

Solar storm (CME) predictions: Active regions seen in the NE of the solar disk show decaying or small magnetic flux, with a chance of evolving activity in the NE near limb region No. 1662. The most intense region NW of the disk, No. 1660, is rotating to the farside. Presently no major CMEs are expected to occur in the direction of Earth during the next three days. Weak storms might be produced through prominence eruptions leading to SEN and SWN type CMEs of slower speed. Some larger active regions are currently seen by STEREO/SECCHI on the Sun's farside disk. Solar magnetic field analysis shows no evidence for the occurrence of upcoming superstorms (extremely fast CMEs with speeds greater 2.000 km/s) during the next days.

Solar energetic proton (SEP) events and flares: No major CMEs and flares are expected to occur the next days. The only current candidate, active region No. 1660, is rotating to the farside.

Remark: Magnetic conditions on the Sun under circumstances might change within a few hours.

July 17, 2012 - Comparison of Forecast and Observations

The real arrival time of the CME at L1 as measured by ACE was 17:30 UT on July 14. So it was 9 hours (4 taking the estimated error of 5 hours into account) late compared to the arrival time forecasted by the AFFECTS CME propagation model. The reason for the delay is presumably the very slow wind ahead of the CME en route to Earth. The magnetic polarity of the CME agrees according to our interpretation with the predicted one generally, though it is likely that the CME center which had propagated south of the ecliptic has not been encountered. The N to S variation following the CME's shock sheath region turned into a long lasting radial -Bz component, being likely the CME's stretched magnetotail. The overall Kp-amplitude of the disturbance is under analysis, but it is likely a Kp 8 event.

July 13, 2012 - Solar storm is heading towards Earth

A CME associated with a X1.4 Flare occurred around 4.30 pm on July 12 near S15W01. The disk centered CME had a speed of 1200-1500 km/s and is expected to arrive at Earth on Saturday July 14 around 10:30 LT (08:30 UT). The magnetic configuration is inferred to be of right-handed NES type according to the Bothmer & Schwenn magnetic flux rope model. Peak phase of the storm is expected to occur during passage of the center to rear part of the CME, after about 6 pm on Saturday July 14. Polar lights are likely to be visible in Northern Europe near midnight. The geomagnetic storm strength is estimated to reach Kp 8-9 values. The full analysis of the event (in German language) can be found at http://www.astro.physik.uni-goettingen.de/~bothmer/SpaceWeatherReports. ENLIL simulations are available at NOAA-SWPC (http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/). The arrival time calculated from ENVI simulations is 2 hours later.

June 17, 2012 - Perfect match: CME has arrived as predicted

The June 14 frontside halo CME has reached Earth on June 16 at 9 pm CEST (7 pm UT) and has caused a medium geomagnetic storm. The flux rope structure of the CME was NES in agreement with the modeling results. The main storm started when the magnetic fields turned south at the center of the CME and was strongest in its trailing edge. What a perfect forecast - congratulations to the team for this success!

June 15, 2012 - CME en route to Earth

Disk centered active region 1504, located south of the solar equator, has emitted several CMEs into space. A frontside halo CME occurred around 2 p.m. on June 14. Analysis of its near Sun evolution, 3D structure, source region location and magnetic polarity yields the following results: - The northern edge of the CME is estimated to strike Earth on June 16 around 9 pm CEST, i.e. at times of the last European championship matches of group A. The CME arrival time has been deduced from its propagation speed of about 1.000 km/s in the field of view of the STEREO and SOHO coronagraphs and analysis of CME travel times to Earth orbit. Such CMEs are expected to decelerate en route to Earth to about 700 km/s. Arrival time of the associated shock wave will be several hours earlier. - Peak time of the geomagnetic storm and auroral activity is estimated to occur after midnight on June 17 based on the CME's magnetic flux rope structure (type NES according to the Bothmer & Schwenn flux rope scheme) when the center of the CME and trailing edge pass Earth. Inclination of the flux rope will be about 45 degrees with respect to the ecliptic plane. Forecast provided by the University of Göttingen AFFECTS team (Volker Bothmer (VB), Jonas Hesemann (JH), Malte Venzmer (MV), Eckhard Bosman (EB)).

June 01, 2012 - Active region and coronal hole

A complex active region has emerged at the Sun's North-East limb. This region is a potential candidate of solar storms, i.e. of faster CMEs and flares, during the next week. The situation appears particularly threatening because of the presence of a coronal hole ahead of the active region, which will give rise to increased solar wind speeds and enhanced geomagnetic activity starting 4-5 June. During the time of Venus transit across the solar disk on June 5-6, both planets will be engulfed in the solar wind high speed stream.

May 23, 2012 - Decaying active regions

Most active regions seen on the solar disk reveal decaying magnetic flux. No major solar storms are currently expected to happen but the Earth is engulfed in a high speed solar wind stream originating from a coronal hole near disc center. Intensified aurora is expected to occur at northern latitudes.

May 09, 2012 - Large sunspot region not likely to cause major storms at Earth

The large sunspot region North-East of the solar equator currently shows no magnetic signatures indicative of triggering strong geomagnetic storms. Coronal mass ejections magnetic fields are estimated to be directed antiparallel to the Earth magnetic field. No major CMEs have occurred so far. The ones observed en route to Earth are of low propagation speed (ca. 500 km/s) as derived from analysis of STEREO/SECCHI/COR2 beacon images. However, the situation might be subject to change depending on the evolution of the magnetic field in the active region and in its neighborhood.

May 07, 2012 - Coronal hole on visible solar disk and new active region

Fast solar wind originating from a coronal hole near the Sun's visible disk is expected to reach Earth on May 08 to 10, causing increased geomagnetic activity and small ionospheric perturbations. New emerging magnetic flux is associated with appearance of a new sunspot area North-East of the solar equator. It will appear disk centered around May 11 and may give rise to geo-effective coronal mass ejections.

May 03, 2012 - No major solar storms are expected the next days

Most active regions on the visible disk are currently showing decaying magnetic flux.

April 21, 2012 - Several Active Regions North and South of the Equator

Several active regions can be seen North and the South of the solar equator. The magnetic flux in these regions indicates the potential of the onset of only medium fast (up to 1000 km/s) CMEs. No solar superstorms and major flares are expected to occur the next days. For SDO images see the "The Sun Today" link.

April 10, 2012 - Equatorial Coronal Holes

The Sun's disk facing Earth shows no major active regions and associated signatures of strong magnetic flux increases. An equatorial coronal hole is currently passing central meridian. Solar wind speed will be increased the next two days. Upcoming conditions: Active regions seen by STEREO-B near the East-limb south of the solar equator are likely candidates for solar storms during the next ten days.